For some reason as a child, the Ebor was my favourite race. Maybe it was because the great Sea Pigeon won the race in 1979. I don’t know? It’s a race I have had a bit of luck in recently too with three winners since 2011. Let’s hope that can continue in this year’s renewal.
Since 2009 there have been 150 runners in the Ebor Handicap with 8 winners and 31 placed horses. For me the race is a good one for trends fans and here are some of my key trends for helping identify this year’s winner:
Age: 4 to 7-year-old
Odds SP: 33/1 & under
Weight Compared To Top Weight: 5lb and lower of the top weighted runner
Best In Three Runs: 1st, 2nd or 3rd
All the last 8 winners of the race have shared the above criteria.
Personally, I normally concentrate on horses aged 5-year-old and older but wouldn’t dismiss the chances of a 4-year-old although surprisingly they have had only 1 winner from 59 runners 9 placed in the race since 2009.
For a 1m 6f race the draw has been significant. Since 2009 horses drawn in stalls 1 to 9 are 1 win from 62 runners 13 placed and those drawn 1 to 5 are 0 wins from 36 runners 7 placed. Meanwhile, those drawn 10+ are 7 winners from 88 runners 18 placed. I would be cautious of any horse drawn very low in this year’s renewal.
I also see the booking of claiming jockey as a positive in the race, which isn’t so surprising given the compressed nature of the weights in this ultra competitive handicap. Jockeys with a claim are 4 winners from 22 runners +59.5 and 8 placed since 2009.
Hopefully, the above trends will help you select a shortlist of contenders for this year’s renewal.
you seem to be ignoring time form ratings ? which have stood the test of time over these past 70 years ?
Hi Peter, I wrote this up earlier in the week but this is a trend’s guide to shortlist contenders for the Ebor. At this stage, I don’t look at ratings. Once I have a shortlist of contenders then I use ratings to find possible selections. Timeform ratings, Racing Post ratings or if you subscribe to the Race Advisor ratings can all be used. The point of the trends is to help shortlist possible contenders and also eliminate runners from my calculations. In addition to the above: Four-year-olds are 1 win from 59 runners 9 placed in the past 8 years and runners racing within 4lb of the top weight are 0 wins from 32 runners 6 placed. Whilst low drawn horses have struggled with runners in stalls 1 to 5 being 0 wins from 36 runners 7 placed. That’s not to say a horse drawn 1 to 5 won’t win but I would be looking for the price to compensate for the draw or have a compelling reason to have that runner on my betting shortlist. Likewise I am going against four-year-olds in this year’s race but again if you fancy one of that age group those stats won’t stop it from winning.
My pin has fallen this year on Star Storm & Nakeeta. The latter has solid form credentials and the 5lb taken off by jockey Callum Rodriguez could be vital in a tight handicap like this as it has been on four occasions since 2009. For the same reason, Battersea shouldn’t be far away with David Egan taking 5lb off and nor should Seamour.
I’d be interested in the A/E for each of the stars you provide. It’s all well and good saying 4yo’s are only 1 from 59 but what is the expectation of this group using say betfair SP’s?
* stats.
Hi Keith, Good point and in future, I will put up the A/E stat to both ISP & BFSP, in the trends as I do with the trainer micro angles I put up. As a point of information, the A/E to BFSP for the four-year-olds is 0.22, not including this year’s runners in that figure.