Strategies

Late Season Head Quarters Trio

Photo of Derek Sheppard Derek SheppardSeptember 30, 2015
3 1,253 1 minute read

Newmarket have a number of meetings over the remaining months of the turf flat season.

The following three trainers have shown a propensity to take a number of prizes from September onward’s at flat racing’s HQ.

First up is Charlie Appleby who has Goldolphin ammunition to fire. Having taken over from disgraced Mahmood al Zarooni, Appleby has targeted the juvenile events and in his short time training has had much success.

  BETS WINS WIN% ISP PLACES PLACE% ROI BFSP
OVERALL 25 9 36 54.98 13 52 219.92 67.68
2014 11 2 18 27 5 45 245.45 34.38
2013 14 7 50 27.98 8 57 199.86 33.30

The Irish combination of Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning should be respected as Bolger’s record shows, he sends some well above average juvenile’s to HQ to take on some of the best of what Britain has to offer. Since 2006 his record with his young brigade reads;

BETS WINS WIN% ISP PLACES PLACE% ROI BFSP
19 8 42.11 37.93 10 52.63 199.63 47.21

Don’t be put off by the prices as his runners, as they don’t cross the Irish Sea for the craic. This is best highlighted by over 50% of his young horses running placed. Parish Hall and Intense Focus both winners @ 20/1 with Leitir Mor 2nd @ 33/1, Zip Top 3rd @ 14/1 and Atasari 2nd @ 16/1 hitting the places.

The final trainer that makes up the trio is another young trainer that has held a licence for just a few seasons, Mick Appleby. This astute trainer appears to have a few of his older horse’s (4 year-old’s and up) well handicapped come the season end and early signs indicate that he has a liking to the winners enclosure at Newmarkets late season fixture’s.

In 2012 Mick Appleby was 0 from 1 with his older handicappers, but the last two years have produced …

BETS WINS WIN% ISP PLACES PLACE% ROI BFSP
9 4 44.44 23.75 6 66.67 263.89 28.65

Note from the figures above that Appleby is 0 from 3 when his horse’s race 1m2f or further in handicap’s although it’s probably to early in to his training tenure to know if this will be significant.

Photo of Derek Sheppard Derek SheppardSeptember 30, 2015
3 1,253 1 minute read
Photo of Derek Sheppard

Derek Sheppard

Left school at 16 and went into my first employment as a mechanical technical engineer. Those first five years of employment were perhaps my most enjoyable and I finished my apprenticeship having gained a degree, as well as the usual ONC, OND, HNC and HND. The company I worked for moved away from England, across the Atlantic to America whilst I was in my fourth year. I never did join up with them and head my own team as I had not long before hand got engaged, and my roots were in England and I'm one of those patriotic people. I went from one job to another, never really settling and being under paid as Company's were feeling the pinch under a Tory government led by Mrs T. Some thirty years later I decided it was the time I started out betting for my living. My interest in racing and betting first started out when I wrote a piece about 'probability' for Maths during my second year of my apprenticeship. This was later than my first bets, and as with most people, this started out as a child with a bet on the National. My interest grew and I read as many books as I could on betting, no internet back in those days. What was written then and still holds true today is that you can't win every day, you will by the very nature have more losing days than winning days. If anyone wants to be a winner, then they will have to accept this. I have seen so many people go 'on tilt' because they can't accept they are going to have a losing day. I started to get interested in racing systems after reading Clive Holt's Fineform publication 'Profitable Betting Strategies'. I still have this and a number of his other publications today and I still re-read them. I have now become a successful bettor of horses (and sports) in as much as I make a comfortable living. I'm restricted by many bookmakers and most of my betting is now done through the exchanges.

3 Comments

  1. As a punter of a similar vintage to Derek Shepherd (but less successful!) I would strongly urge younger racing enthusiasts to read and take note of his very wise approach to betting and to persevere despite the losing runs!
    It is possible to construct a portfolio of betting strategies that produce regular profits over time. The main dangers to success are departing from these strategies during losing runs – successful gambling requires self discipline – and of course a big enough bank to tide over such runs. However with several strategies in place
    including the odd (!) tried & tested tipster, The Racing Advisor of course and the TIME to spend on operating
    your systems success can be achieved. With apologies to Michael Wilding, Derek Shepherd and the successful tipsters out there…..Not trying to teach anyone how to suck eggs….

    1. Thanks Josephine for your comments. If I could add that I believe the reason most backers that venture betting on a more professional/serious level fail is due to …
      Mindset and Money Management – boring as it may seem, I can’t stress enough that having a good mindset knowing that you will have more losing days than winning ones. How you deal with losing runs supported by proper management of your stakes and your betting bank will more often or not having the greatest bearing between success and failure.
      If you do not have these skills then your chances of being successful in your betting are nil.

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