Strategies

Portfolio Corner – A Trainer To Follow Right Now

Photo of Derek Sheppard Derek SheppardMay 12, 2015
2 1,992 3 minutes read

Welcome to ‘Portfolio Corner’

I have been betting horses and sports for a living for a good few years now and my bets are based around systems, profiles, trends and stats.

I have over 250 systems. I know that may appear a lot to some, but many are based around individual trainers and operate for perhaps one or two months a year. My turnover is high and on some days I will be betting what appears to some as too many horses. But we are all individuals and all bet in different ways. Pro backers are not the same, some are very selective and rely on the form book, others will have some stable inside knowledge, and then there are those like me, that bet on a high volume all the year round.

Interestingly the guy that achieves a 40% ROI on 350 bets a year achieves the same profit as the person that achieves 10% ROI on 1400 bets a year if they both bet to the same level stakes.

Neither of the methods above are the right or wrong way. It’s fair to say that what works for one will not necessarily work for another probably given that each of us have variants in mentality, not to mention time commitments.

One of the reasons that I have a large number of systems within my portfolio is that not every system will win every month, period or season. A system based on a trainers debut handicappers may be hit with a virus or their horses may not be of the quality that he or she has had in past years.

So I take a long-term view that the systems that win more than compensate those that lose. I make it a ritual to regularly monitor my systems and if say Trainer ‘A’ has not been performing during the early weeks of the period I back their horses’ I will stop betting them. Yes I will miss a few winners but I will have saved money from not betting the loser’s. I can always go back to the system if the stable start to show some life and hit form.

Trainer To Follow in May/June/July

There are quite a few that will probably not recognize the name of Jo Hughes as she only took her license out in 2011 after Paul Blockley had been warned off. But don’t let that put you off as she is a very astute trainer that knows how to place her stable runners at this time of year.

Well to be a bit more precise, it’s her handicappers that we should sit up and take note of.

What I like about low profile trainers are that having displayed a skill at getting their horses fit and placed in races that give them a good opportunity to be very competitive, their backers are still rewarded several season’s later. Could you imagine the same scenario for the likes of Johnston, Gosden and Co.

I’m confident Jo Hughes will remain profitable over the coming seasons.

So what are the rules ……

– Jo Hughes- Handicaps- Class 4, 5, 6- May, June, July (only these three months)- Odds between Evens and 25/1

Since 2011 (up to May 6th 2015)

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 15.13.37

The Monthly Breakdowns …..

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 16.41.47

The Yearly Breakdowns …..

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Now the way I bet is turning over my betting bank whilst staying cautious, so I will bet any runner at 5/1 or below as ‘Win’ only for a 1 point stake and 11/2 and above ‘Each-Way’ at 1/2 point win and 1/2 point place.

At Odds between Evens and 5/1 (inclusive)

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At Odds between 11/2 and 25/1 (inclusive)

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Since 2011, betting Jo Hughes handicap runners during May, June and July as 1 point wins @ 5/1 or less and 1/2 point E/W then in four full seasons you would have returned 145.86 points profit.

The above figures do include two wins under National Hunt rules that returned 17.5 points profit. Those two wins came in 2012 from 5 runners and since then Jo Hughes is 0 from 6. I feel it’s safe to ignore her National Hunt runners.

2014 wasn’t a great season for the stable from a win perspective, yet it still made a good profit. The runners on the whole still performed well, this fact is supported by the 43% that ran into a place. Granted a little luck, a few of those placed could have got their nose in front. But that is racing. Let’s hope the stable has some good fortune this season.

Until late May or early June when my next system will appear ‘Be Lucky and Profitable’

Photo of Derek Sheppard Derek SheppardMay 12, 2015
2 1,992 3 minutes read
Photo of Derek Sheppard

Derek Sheppard

Left school at 16 and went into my first employment as a mechanical technical engineer. Those first five years of employment were perhaps my most enjoyable and I finished my apprenticeship having gained a degree, as well as the usual ONC, OND, HNC and HND. The company I worked for moved away from England, across the Atlantic to America whilst I was in my fourth year. I never did join up with them and head my own team as I had not long before hand got engaged, and my roots were in England and I'm one of those patriotic people. I went from one job to another, never really settling and being under paid as Company's were feeling the pinch under a Tory government led by Mrs T. Some thirty years later I decided it was the time I started out betting for my living. My interest in racing and betting first started out when I wrote a piece about 'probability' for Maths during my second year of my apprenticeship. This was later than my first bets, and as with most people, this started out as a child with a bet on the National. My interest grew and I read as many books as I could on betting, no internet back in those days. What was written then and still holds true today is that you can't win every day, you will by the very nature have more losing days than winning days. If anyone wants to be a winner, then they will have to accept this. I have seen so many people go 'on tilt' because they can't accept they are going to have a losing day. I started to get interested in racing systems after reading Clive Holt's Fineform publication 'Profitable Betting Strategies'. I still have this and a number of his other publications today and I still re-read them. I have now become a successful bettor of horses (and sports) in as much as I make a comfortable living. I'm restricted by many bookmakers and most of my betting is now done through the exchanges.
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